Tuesday, April 29th
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic news. Stocks are showing early gains also, pushing the Dow higher by 183 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (4.19%), which with gains late yesterday should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
3/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.19%
183
Dow
40,411
30
NASDAQ
17,396
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Positive
This week’s calendar of relevant events started late this morning with the release of April's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The Conference Board announced a reading of 86.0 that was lower than expectations and a noticeable decline from March’s revised 93.9. The large drop signals consumers are growing more concerned about their own financial situations and are less likely to make large purchases in the immediate future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, today’s report is good news for mortgage rates.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day for the financial markets and mortgage rates with four morning economic releases, two of which are considered to be highly important. The day will begin at 8:15 AM ET when April’s ADP Employment report is posted. This release tracks changes in private-sector jobs. While it does draw attention, it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows later in the week. Still, because we do often see a reaction to the report, we should be watching it. Analysts are expecting it to show that approximately 128,000 private sector payrolls were added to the economy last month. A smaller number would be good news for rates.
High
Unknown
Next up will be the highly influential initial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading for the 1st quarter at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is considered to be the benchmark indicator of economic growth or contraction since it is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. Market participants are expecting it to reveal the economy grew at an annual rate of 0.4% during the first three months of this year, slowing from the 2.4% rate of the end of last year. A smaller growth rate would make bonds more appealing to investors and be considered good news for mortgage rates.
Medium
Unknown
Also at 8:30 AM will be the release of the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI). This index tracks employer costs for wages and benefits, giving us a measurement of wage-inflation. A large increase in costs means employers will need to pass those increases into the pricing of their products and services. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. A smaller increase than the 0.9% rise that market analysts are predicting would be good news.
Medium
Unknown
The second major release tomorrow morning is March’s Personal Income and Outlays report. It helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. This information is important to mortgage rates due to the influence that consumer spending-related data has on the financial markets. If income is rising, consumers have the ability and willingness to make additional purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth that raises inflation concerns and has a negative impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Tomorrow's release is expected to show a 0.4% rise in income and a 0.5% increase in spending as consumers made purchases before tariffs took effect.
High
Unknown
More importantly in the last report are the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes that are included. These are the Fed’s preferred inflation readings, so they draw a lot of attention. The overall PCE reading is predicted to be unchanged from February while the more watched core PCE is expected to rise 0.1% for the month. Both are expected to fall 0.3% from February on a year-over-year basis. Good news for mortgage pricing would be weaker numbers, especially the annual PCE readings, as it would indicate inflation is slowing at a good pace. However, there is plenty of uncertainty since March brought us the on again and off again tariff announcements.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.