Wednesday, July 9th
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite early stock gains and few headlines to drive trading. The Dow and Nasdaq are both up slightly more than 200 points in early trading. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (4.38%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
7/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.38%
202
Dow
44,443
205
NASDAQ
20,624
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Unknown
Today’s only mortgage rate-relevant activities come during afternoon trading. We will get the results announcement of today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 PM ET. If the benchmarks indicate there was a strong demand for the securities, we could see further bond gains this afternoon. This would be good news for mortgage pricing and possibly lead to a slight intraday improvement in rates before the end of the day. On the other hand, a lackluster demand from investors may lead to an upward revision in rates. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 30-year Bonds are sold.
Medium
Unknown
The minutes from the June 17-18th FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 PM ET today. These give us some insight into each FOMC member’s opinions and votes to leave key rates unchanged last month. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them, but I don't believe they will reveal a significant surprise that we did not get from the post-meeting statement, revised economic projections and press conference after the meeting adjourned. Bond traders are looking for feelings about inflation and thoughts about the Fed's next monetary policy move, which some analysts expected to come during this month’s FOMC meeting before Friday’s Employment report changed that.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow brings us the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. This is only a weekly snapshot, but with such a light calendar this week, we may see a bit stronger reaction than usual if the number of new claims for jobless benefits is noticeably higher or lower than expected. Analysts are expecting it to show 235,000 new claims were filed last week, up from the previous week’s 233,000 new filings. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, so the larger the number the better the news for rates.
Low
Unknown
There are also several Fed-member speeches tomorrow that we will be watching. They are scheduled for 10:00 AM, 1:15 PM and 2:30 PM. Again, they may draw more of a reaction than they normally would since there is little else to drive bond trading.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.